SPCX Lockup Expiry Sparks Reddit Debate: History or Hype?

Reddit users on r/wallstreetbets draw a historical parallel between SPCX's upcoming lockup expiry and CAVA's 2023 lockup pop, warning short sellers against betting on a drop.
The Motley Fool published two articles on July 31: one advising investors to wait until mid-2027 before buying SPCX due to historical IPO underperformance, and another questioning Elon Musk's warning to short sellers.
Sentiment on Reddit was mildly positive at 0.11, with 202 comments across six posts, suggesting active but cautious interest in the ticker.

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$SPCX drew notable retail attention on July 31 as traders debated the implications of the company's upcoming lockup expiration. Reddit discussion centered on a historical comparison to CAVA's 2023 lockup surge, while financial media issued cautionary notes about valuation and long-term performance.

The Lockup Expiry Debate

The most popular Reddit post on r/wallstreetbets drew a direct analogy between

$SPCX's impending lockup expiration and CAVA's 2023 experience. The author, who lost money shorting CAVA before its lockup expiry, warned that insiders often do not sell immediately, leading to a price surge on expiration day. In CAVA's case, the stock rose 19–20% on the lockup date and gained 30% within a week. The post garnered 157 upvotes and 130 comments, signaling strong community engagement around the thesis.

On r/daytrading, a trader asked for advice on maintaining a successful strategy of scalping

$SPCX puts throughout July. The post reflected a different approach — betting on short-term declines — but acknowledged that opening a short position ahead of a major liquidity event carries its own risks.

News Context

Two articles from The Motley Fool added a cautious tone to the discussion. One cited historical data showing that large IPOs typically underperform their market index by 4% over three years, and that

$SPCX's price-to-sales ratio of 76 far exceeds the tech sector average of 9, suggesting overvaluation. The article advised waiting until mid-2027 or later.

The second article addressed Elon Musk's warning that short-sellers betting against SpaceX have a "very low" survival probability. While Musk's statement may be self-serving, the article noted that newly IPO'd stocks often decline in the first six months statistically. However, it concluded that long-term fundamentals could still favor SpaceX.

SPCX

Sentiment and Discussion Volume

Across six posts on r/wallstreetbets and other subreddits,

$SPCX generated 202 comments and 250 upvotes. The overall sentiment score of 0.11 on the combined Reddit data was mildly positive, reflecting a mix of bullish lockup pop expectations and bearish short-term hedging. The ticker climbed to rank 18 on the day, a jump of 138 positions from the previous day, underscoring a surge in retail interest.

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