Tendie Bot

Tendie.bot

Login
SPCX Articles
reddit/

SPCX Bears Take Over Reddit as Short Interest Hits 32% and Lockup Expiry Looms

A look at why SPCX is dominating Reddit discussion on July 22, 2026, as bearish sentiment spikes and traders weigh the risks of lockup expirations, high valuation, and upcoming earnings.

  1. SPCX has fallen roughly 45% from its post-IPO peak and now trades below its $135 IPO price.

  2. Short interest stands at 32% of the tradable float, worth about $25 billion.

  3. Reddit bears are active, with multiple put yolos and bearish DD posts on r/wallstreetbets and r/options.

  4. Upcoming catalysts include the company's first earnings call as a public company on Aug. 4 and lockup expirations that could flood the market with shares.

SpaceX stock

SPCX
$SPCX has become a lightning rod for bearish retail traders on Reddit. The stock, which debuted with massive fanfare, has shed nearly half its value from its post-IPO peak and now sits below its $135 IPO price. On July 22, 2026, the ticker ranked ninth in overall Reddit mentions with 20 posts, 552 comments, and a slightly positive average sentiment of 0.14 — but the most visible posts were overwhelmingly bearish.

Bearish Sentiment Dominates Reddit

The most upvoted post on r/wallstreetbets came from a trader who laid out a detailed bearish thesis, calling SPCX a "scrambled eggs of a business plan" that combines rockets, AI datacenters, and social media. The author announced a vertical put strategy with a long expiration, betting the stock will continue to decline. Another user posted a $23,000 put yolo split between

BE
$BE and SPCX, citing a broken technical level and potential contagion from
TSLA
$TSLA earnings. On r/options, traders expressed caution about buying premium in either direction, noting that the post-IPO IV crush and upcoming lockup expiry make options trading particularly risky. The consensus among Reddit bears is that SPCX's valuation — a market cap of roughly $1.6 trillion on less than $19 billion in revenue — is unsustainable.

Valuation Concerns and Short Interest

The bearish Reddit sentiment aligns with a barrage of cautious analyst takes published on July 22. The Motley Fool reported that short interest has swelled to 206 million shares — 32% of the tradable float — worth $25 billion. CEO Elon Musk claimed short sellers have a "very low" survival probability, but the stock has continued to slide. Bond markets are also sending warning signals: since SpaceX issued $25 billion in debt in June 2026, bond prices have fallen and yields on longer-dated maturities have risen above 7%, suggesting a lack of confidence in the company's ability to service its debt.

Several analysts have published fair value estimates well below the current price. Morningstar's $62 target implies more than 50% downside from the $118.41 close. Raymond James maintains an $800 price target, but the wide divergence highlights the extreme uncertainty around the stock. The company's P/S ratio of 83.7 is 13 times higher than the Nasdaq-100 average.

Upcoming Catalysts

The next major event is SpaceX's first earnings call as a public company on August 4. The company is expected to report strong revenue growth from new AI compute deals with Alphabet, Anthropic, and the Department of Defense, but profitability remains elusive. Meanwhile, lockup expirations are approaching, which could release a wave of insider shares into the market. The combination of high short interest and upcoming share supply creates a volatile setup that Reddit traders are actively positioning for — mostly on the bearish side.

SPCX

Subscribe to Tendie.bot for more market recaps.