SpaceX's $1.77 Trillion IPO Ambition Puts Tesla in the Spotlight

SpaceX's IPO filing at a $1.77 trillion valuation has sparked intense Reddit debate about a potential merger with
$TSLA.
Reddit users are questioning whether the S&P 500's rule changes to accommodate mega-IPOs like SpaceX will reshape passive investing.
Analyst Dan Ives predicts an 80%+ probability of a
$TSLA-SpaceX merger in 2027, adding fuel to the speculation.

SpaceX's plan to go public at $135 per share, targeting a $1.77 trillion valuation, has become the dominant topic on r/stocks and r/wallstreetbets today. The IPO filing, which would make SpaceX the seventh-largest U.S. company by market cap, has put

$TSLA squarely in the crosshairs of retail investors debating what comes next for Elon Musk's corporate empire.

The SpaceX IPO: A Watershed Moment for Tesla

The most discussed post on r/stocks today detailed SpaceX's unusual fixed-price IPO strategy, with the company planning to sell 555.6 million shares at $135 each. The $1.77 trillion valuation would surpass

$TSLA's current $1.6 trillion market cap, a fact that Reddit users were quick to highlight. The post, which garnered 363 upvotes and 282 comments, noted that SpaceX's valuation assumes the EchoStar spectrum and Cursor transactions close, making it a high-stakes bet on the company's AI and space ambitions.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, cited in multiple same-day news reports, called the IPO a "watershed moment" and predicted an 80%+ probability that

$TSLA and SpaceX will merge in 2027 as part of Musk's strategy to consolidate control of the AI ecosystem. This merger speculation has become a central theme in Reddit discussions, with users on r/wallstreetbets accusing Musk of orchestrating a scheme to force index funds to buy into SpaceX at inflated prices.

S&P 500 Rule Changes and the Mega-IPO Wave

A recurring theme across r/investing and r/stocks is the S&P 500's ongoing rule changes to accommodate massive IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic. One post, which received 125 upvotes, argued that the index is "an actively managed, rules-based product" that changes its methodology whenever the market threatens to break it. The post highlighted how the 2026 adjustments are designed to handle low-float mega-IPOs, potentially transforming the S&P 500 into an "exit-liquidity machine" for venture capitalists—a dynamic that could force passive funds to buy into hype-driven valuations.

On r/wallstreetbets, a post with 53 upvotes laid out a five-step "pump and dump" scenario, alleging that Musk is using the S&P 500 rule changes to inflate SpaceX's valuation and force retail investors to buy in at high prices. The post claimed that after a 15-day stabilization period, index funds would be required to invest at whatever market price, potentially locking in gains for early investors while exposing retail funds to downside risk.

The Merger Debate and Tesla's Position

The Motley Fool and Benzinga both published articles today examining the potential

$TSLA-SpaceX merger, noting that betting markets give 50/50 odds of an announcement within a year. The merger thesis is driven by overlapping AI ambitions, joint semiconductor development with Intel, and SpaceX's need for capital—

$TSLA has $45 billion in cash while SpaceX burns $9 billion quarterly. However, some analysts urged caution, pointing out that SpaceX is pursuing a Tesla-sized valuation despite significantly lower revenue and ongoing net losses.

For

$TSLA investors, the day's discussion underscores a broader narrative: the SpaceX IPO is not just a standalone event but a potential catalyst for re-evaluating Musk's entire corporate structure. Whether the merger materializes or not, the debate has already shifted

$TSLA's role in the AI and space ecosystem, making it a stock to watch as SpaceX's June 12 listing approaches.

TSLA

$TSLA

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