Nvidia Rides a Wave of Reddit Optimism Ahead of Earnings

Reddit sentiment for
$NVDA was solidly positive as investors processed a news-heavy day for the company.
A key driver: the news that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined President Trump and other top tech leaders on a trip to China to negotiate trade deals.
A short-seller report from Culper Research alleging a hidden China revenue channel introduced a note of caution, but most Reddit conversation remained focused on the AI buildout and upcoming earnings.

A Market Value Milestone and a Presidential Trip

The dominant post of the day came from r/smallstreetbets, where a user noted that

$NVDA's market capitalization now exceeds the combined stock market value of every country outside the U.S. and China. That post drew more than 4,600 upvotes and 146 comments, highlighting how the chipmaker's valuation has become its own headline.

On r/stocks, a related discussion centered on President Trump's trip to China that day, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang listed among a dozen top executives—alongside Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and others—as part of a delegation seeking trade deals. The post racked up over 1,900 upvotes and more than 500 comments, suggesting retail investors are closely watching the geopolitical dimension of Nvidia's China exposure.

$NVDA

NVDA

Watching the Macro Picture and the Samsung Ripple

Not all discussion was bullish on the day. The hot CPI print (3.8% year-over-year) and oil crossing $100 were a source of anxiety in r/investing, where some investors questioned the market's resilience and noted

$NVDA's upcoming earnings report could be a pressure point. One top-rated post argued the market's calm in the face of rising inflation should be more worrying than a selloff.

Meanwhile, a potential Samsung strike continued to be a hot topic in both r/wallstreetbets and r/stocks. A widely upvoted post laid out the case that memory supply constraints from an 18-day Samsung shutdown would benefit Micron, but it also highlighted that

$NVDA has already locked in HBM supply with SK Hynix through the end of 2026. The narrative is that Nvidia's supply chain for the chips it needs most is secured, insulating it from the immediate memory spot-price volatility.

Short-Seller Report vs. AI Infrastructure Optimism

A bearish piece of news emerged when Culper Research published a short report alleging that more than 20% of Nvidia's FY 2026 compute revenue comes from China through illegal diversions via Singapore-based intermediaries. The report tied the claims to a DOJ indictment involving Super Micro Computer and warned that Nvidia faces a revenue hole as China pivots to domestic chips. However, this story did not dominate Reddit conversation on May 13; posts about it were largely absent from the top-ranked ticker discussion, suggesting retail investors may be pricing in a very tight election-related resolution or ignoring the report altogether.

Instead, the broader AI narrative remained front and center. Posts about Nebius, Lumentum, and the insatiable demand for optical and memory components in data centers all name-dropped

$NVDA as the anchor of the AI supercycle. The Motley Fool's preview of Nvidia's May 20 earnings report, expecting $1.77 EPS and 78% revenue growth, also got pickup as a catalyst timeline.

Valuation Worries Creep In

On r/ValueInvesting, one user who sold half of their semiconductor ETF holdings after four years said they remain bullish on

$NVDA and TSM, but questioned whether the wider semiconductor sector was becoming "based on dreams and hopes". That tension—between a generational AI buildout and stretched valuations—is likely to bubble up again as earnings approach.

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