Intel Plunges 17% After Weak Guidance; Reddit Retail Investors Second-Guess Their Shorts

Intel stock dropped 17.15% on January 23 after the company beat Q4 revenue and EPS estimates but issued Q1 guidance well below expectations.
Retail investors on r/wallstreetbets heavily discussed
$INTC options, with one trader selling puts days before a potential six-figure payout.
The sell-off was tied to persistent supply constraints, foundry losses, and market share losses to
$AMD, which rose on the news.

Intel Tanks on Weak Outlook

$INTC stock cratered 17.15% on Friday after the chip giant reported Q4 earnings that beat top- and bottom-line estimates but delivered a Q1 2026 guidance miss. Revenue was $13.7 billion and earnings per share came in at $0.15, but the company forecast just $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion in Q1 revenue with break-even EPS — well below the $12.6 billion analysts were looking for.

INTC

The weak guidance was blamed on supply constraints, with management expecting a recovery only in Q2. Despite strength in the Data Center and AI segment, which delivered $4.7 billion in revenue, the broader market punished the stock. The sell-off mirrored a pattern seen throughout Intel's recent history: promising execution followed by a stumble that resets investor confidence.

Reddit Traders Second-Guess Their Timing

$INTC was the top-ranked ticker across r/wallstreetbets and r/stocks on Friday, drawing 171 comments and 249 upvotes across five posts. The discussion tilted bearish, but with a notable undercurrent of regret.

One r/wallstreetbets trader posted about a $40,000 Intel short position, asking, “How big are my tendies at open?” The user noted the stock closed at $54.40 and was expected to open around $47-$48, and questioned whether implied volatility crush would significantly cut into profits on 15-day options. The post racked up 696 upvotes and 264 comments.

Another r/wallstreetbets user expressed distinct frustration: they sold Intel puts for a loss on Wednesday, only to see them become worth $100,000 later in the week. They then rolled into Carvana puts, which were down 40% and appeared likely to expire worthless. “This is the third earnings call I chickened out on where I would’ve made six figures in a day,” they wrote.

Meanwhile, on r/stocks, a more measured take argued the sell-off was entirely predictable. “I honestly don’t get what people expected from Intel’s earnings,” one post read. The author pointed to declining fundamentals, shrinking market share, and ongoing billions in losses, asking why “people still put a premium on poop.” The post earned 457 upvotes and 167 comments.

Structural Challenges and Supply Constraints

News sources echoed similar themes. The Motley Fool noted that

$INTC is still making too many unforced errors, citing disappointing fab yields, supply chain mistakes, and persistent losses in its foundry division. Investing.com highlighted that despite the stock’s 150% rally since August (fueled by government investment and Nvidia’s stake), the turnaround is still years away, with single-digit growth expected through 2027.

The supply shortage that weighed on Intel’s guidance actually benefited rival

$AMD, which saw its stock pop as the semiconductor shortage pointed to higher prices and stronger margins for companies still able to produce at scale. One article from The Motley Fool on AMD’s gain and an Investing.com piece both framed Intel’s loss as AMD’s opportunity.

CEO Lip-Bu Tan acknowledged production difficulties during the earnings call, and the market responded swiftly. The Q1 guidance of $11.7–12.7 billion in revenue fell short of the $12.6 billion consensus, and with the stock having doubled in recent months, expectations were simply too high to sustain.

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